Kennametal Iscar
Tungsten Industry boom
The median price of tungsten is running, the industry continued to test
Demand forecast. China Tungsten Industry Association anticipates, “Eleventh Five-Year” period of domestic demand is increasing by 7% tungsten, and world demand is increasing by 4 percent tungsten, due to U.S. economic growth has not optimistic at the same time China’s economic growth after 2008 will also be put slow, so the next three years, annual growth rate of China and the world demand for tungsten were probably lower than the above projections, and they may result roughly 6% and 3.5% or so.
Supply forecast. According to the information, the next three years China will have a row in Fujian Province and so a number of large and medium sized Luo pit mine production of tungsten is expected new capacity 16,000 tons, in foreign countries, an annual output of 4689 tons of tungsten concentrate in Vietnam Nui Phaon tungsten due to project relocation and other reasons, the normal capacity of the release to be postponed until 2009, Australia King Island, tungsten ore project are still under planning. On the whole, we expect the next three years, the world’s new mining capacity of up to 2.5 million tons to the world about 15 million ton / year mine production capacity, the next three years, the world’s annual growth rate of tungsten mine production capacity will reach 5.27%.
Tungsten Industry economic outlook. As the next few years, the world’s tungsten supply growth is expected to exceed demand growth, so in the medium term price of tungsten will be under pressure. As of the end of July 2009, in the domestic tungsten concentrate prices remain at 6.5 yuan / ton, compared with 2008, 80,000 yuan / ton have a more significant decline. Considering China’s tungsten industry in continuing the implementation of regulatory policies, industry concentration gradually increased, with the status of superior resources, China will effectively control the price of tungsten is running at a reasonable price.
Because in the future tungsten product export tariffs is expected to continue to increase, coupled with the yuan appreciation in the price of tungsten is difficult against the background of rising domestic tungsten industry profitability is expected to decline. From the sub-industry perspective, because of the industry smelting and roughing serious excess capacity situation difficult to change, therefore, domestic tungsten smelting and rough business climate will remain low, industry profits continue to focus on mining and processing at both ends. However, the domestic mining and deep-processing enterprises is not sit back and relax, including mine profitability may be due to resource tax reform and energy, wages, rising costs and environmental protection has been weakened, while the domestic deep-processing enterprises and Sweden due to technological level of Sandvik, the United States Kennametal, Israel’s Iscar, etc. there is a big gap between the prices of foreign tungsten, tungsten prices in foreign countries increasing occupation of the terminal market in China, as well as the domestic mining and metallurgy have been achieved to a joint venture deep processing enterprises in the field of large-scale infiltration of the context of its future competitive pressures faced by no means negligible.
In the long term, due to the scarcity of tungsten resources, including wolframite in 10 years after a comprehensive depletion) and its high strategic value, so the next record high price of tungsten is not difficult, but the level of corporate earnings tungsten and therefore have the opportunity to scale new heights.
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